Dico Lucidas - Taceo Nubilas
Wisdom is the sunlight of the soul
There is only one way to avoid criticism: do nothing, say nothing, and be nothing
I intended to make a Blog, partly because I wanted to communicate with my large and extended family, in a way that all members could see it. Partly, because I wanted to tell my life story before my family read someone else stories about me. Because I have never spoken, others have seized control of my story. Now I will attempt to tell my story, in a way that futures members of my family will have something to read about me, my words, my truth and not all the lies and fiction.
“But how could you live and have no story to tell?”
― Fyodor Dostoevsky, White Nights
The great writer Amos Oz, in his memoir A Tale of Love and Darkness, writes “my ambition was to be a book. Not a writer. People can be killed like ants, writers are not hard to kill. But not books. However systematically you try to destroy them there is always a chance that a copy will survive.” I believe that in the age of the Internet, something will remain in someone’s mind and the seed will have been sown and perhaps one day, the truth will emerge from the darkness and soil of lies.
Many writers have long argued that it is senseless to distinguish between fiction and non-fiction; it is all writing. We live faster than ever before with information, facts and content raptures form. Breaks and changes it, there are no borders between fact and fabrication, one flows into the other. Witnesses are never impartial. In telling a story, humans create, they wrestle time like sculpture does marble. They are actors and creators.
I have been saying now for decades, ultimately, we all have to face reality and the music. Someone has to pay from all the printing of money and debts – One day.
This morning I received an email today:
The Chairman of the Fed knows this. The President knows it. So does the Treasury Secretary. In fact, nearly everyone at the top levels of the U.S. Government knows it, too. But they would never say it out loud. Not even to themselves. If they did, the whole house of cards would come tumbling down.
What’s their dirty little secret? The national debt is now too big to be paid off! That’s right, the U.S. A.’s national debt of $28 trillion dollars — $157 trillion if you count the bills we have to pay in the future — is now too big to be repaid by raising taxes or cutting spending.
There’s only one way out of this fiscal crisis, and they’re not going to tell you about it for obvious reason.
This time it is worse than when I wrote in our market report back in 1976, that the meetings of the IMF were discussing to “built” another penthouse on top of another one on the 50th floor of their skyscraper, no one wanted to speak about the fact that the skyscraper was built in a swamp and slowly sinking. Now we have reached the end of all cycles.
As a technical analyst and market technician, I have close to sixty years followed a foundation incorporated in my birth year, the Foundation for the Study of Cycles was incorporated on January 10, 1941, by Edward R. Dewey after he discovered coincidental cycles in nature and business. I read his compelling paper, The Case for Cycles published in 1967 when Dewey presents years of research that convinced him of natural environmental forces that stimulate and depress mankind in mass. This leads me to go to meetings in London City with like-minded people looking at technical analysis of the prices, being bonds, equities and commodities and the first steps to founding STA (The Society of Technical Analysts).
I made an academic paper, in the late 1960s, on the moon influence on the price of cotton and silver over a period of 170 years, at the time, clearly showing the connection with the monthly cycle of the moon. After all, we have known for years that women menstrual period was governed by the moon cycle. Mental and hormonal states are under the influence of the Moon. Just as the Moon takes about 28 days to circle around to Earth, a woman’s menstrual cycle is approximately 28 days.
My Sixty Years of Experience
Have taught me that nothing lasts forever, changes will always come. I started out in adult life as a “financial advisor” nearly 60 years ago; at the time, I was a very young man taking my knowledge from others and indeed from reading many books. After working several years with investment research, including creating the first offshore investment fund report for institutional investors (a technical and quantitative analysis to mutual funds and investment trusts), I 1969 co-founded the first company in Europe, possibly in the world, for financial and estate planning in London for High-Net-Worth Investors (HNWI), Associated Financial Planning (AFP). Sadly, I lacked the tenacity to stay the course, mostly totally distracted from the basic investment advice I had for years given to others.
When I created Scandinavian Capital Exchange in Scandinavia in 1973, I pioneered alternative investment and investment in commodities, including precious metals.
Because of well-known events, I did not even consider continuing to work in finance. Central to the relationship in banking and finance is trust. When such trust has become an issue, it can never be restored. This meant I stayed away from this area of work; nevertheless, I did follow the markets from the sideline.
I happened to be in New York on Monday the 19th of October 1987, the Black Monday; I later witnessed near 35 years of history of financial markets. We will now face monumental changes, not only caused by the world pandemic but more due to the printing press of money.
more to follow…..
The IPO of Coinbase, to me, indicate the top of this market (April 14, 2021)
Somehow, I do not believe in all these cryptocurrencies now; when Coinbase, the Digital Currency Exchange, is worth more than BP, this is unrealistic, moreover, command a higher value than the major stock exchanges in the world together. This is unrealistic and naïve to think that this bubble will not burst. It is the Emperor without clothes, with more than 7000 cryptocurrencies!! Bitcoin trading north of $63,000!!
It is interesting that Coinbase acts as principals and not as an exchange; they can create their own crypto assets, moreover pass on any bad deals to their customers. They first made a profit last year, how convenient, after nine years of trading.
Anyone out there with any sense?
Coinbase is somewhat different from other well-known cryptocurrency exchanges as they are more of a broker than an exchange. This means that when you buy cryptocurrencies on the platform, you are actually purchasing the coins directly from Coinbase, as opposed to trading them with other users.
In return for this, Coinbase charges you to deposit and withdraw funds, as well as a transaction/trading fee every time you buy or sell coins.
Don’t forget you only have the option of going long at Coinbase. This means that you can’t make a profit if you think the markets will go down.
Every Tom, Dick and Harry can create their cryptocurrency; there are now more than 13.500 cryptocurrencies. Most of them have no assets to back their valuation. Worse, no income. They are only making money for their founders and early investors. What realism is there with more than $2 trillion in crypto? All air!!!!!
As FT writes: Sceptics note that cryptocurrencies have yet to achieve widespread adoption in payments and other core areas of the financial system. Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, on Wednesday called cryptocurrencies “vehicles for speculation”, reflecting a view that is still prevalent among policymakers around the world. In 2018, Bank for International Settlements head Agustín Carstens said “cryptocurrencies are, in a nutshell, a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster”.
Others warn prices are only sustained by speculative buyers.
Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England said last week that investors risked losing all of their money. “They have no intrinsic value. That doesn’t mean to say people don’t put a value on them, because they can have extrinsic value. But they have no intrinsic value,” he said. “I’m going to say this very bluntly again. Buy them only if you’re prepared to lose all your money.”
What will happen if there are future crypto wars? Cyberattack on electricity network? Knocking out all the exchanges? Or that one country like the USA forbid cryptocurrencies? Turkey has just ban digital money payment for goods and services, who is next? China does not allow the citizen to own or trade in cryptocurrencies. What will happen when the government request all banks to reject crypto and inform on owners with crypto accounts to the Revenue? Nearly all the exchanges, act as principals, charging interest on the huge leverage trading; they can monitor all the trading and force price moves, creating more fees and profits – what kind of exchange is that?
I was the co-founder in the late 1960s and early 1970s of a group of Technical Analysts in London, holding regular meetings. Later we incorporated in the late 1980s and became the Society of Technical Analysts (STA), today a highly respected professional association, and leading member of the international Market Technician Association.
I should have predicted all this speculation coming. Moreover, looking at the charts of bitcoin, it appears one of the easiest things to trade and make money in during the last ten years, with regular and very identifiable cycles. 320, 80 and 20 days. I have for years just walked away from something which is so obvious, – I have been blind. For me it is not an issue if all these now 12.000 plus cryptocurrencies is a total fraud, we now have values of more than 2.5 trillion dollars, and despite most of this is just “air” with NOTHING behind., one could have had a fantastic ride both on the up and downside.
Bitcoin lies in the same economic category as financial games like poker, roulette, and the lottery. These are all zero-sum games. The property binding all zero-sum games together is that the amount of resources contributed to the pot is precisely equal to the amount that is paid out. Because nothing additional is created in a zero-sum game, for every player who wins something from the pot, there must be a loser.
Compare this to win-win financial opportunities like stocks or bonds. In the case of a stock, each shareholder’s contribution is used to support the underlying firm’s deployment of capital. This cocktail of machinery, labour, and intellectual property are combined to create products, the sale of which generates a return. Put differently, as long as the firm’s managers deploy the money in the pot wisely; the firm can throw off more cash to shareholders than the sum originally put into the pot.
PS! I have to declare that my opinion might be tainted by the fact that I back in 2011, agreed to receive 280 Bitcoins, as a refund for some software I had purchased with a credit card. The bitcoin was valued at 9-10 cents, it was only reluctantly I agreed, but the developer told me that they had to pay credit card fees and I on my end and it would be better to get bitcoin. I received an electronic wallet for the first time. I did notice during 2012, the value of the bitcoin going up, but I did not have the possibility to engage myself in the trading, as I found the whole concept conspicuous, obviously not knowing much about the whole concept. Nevertheless, I place my wallet in a TrueCrypt encryption, which even later complicated everything more.
My girlfriend decided to store my computers in a garage for 5-6 years, making some having considerable damage from water and dampness.
In 2017 I tried to get into these hard drives; however, I failed, with the computer, I believe, having the wallet with the bitcoins. So until now, I have lost 280 bitcoins, having them virtually in my hand in 2011 – at that time with some reluctance.
A good read: The Tether Ponzi Scheme – Single Lunch, reflection what it is all about and indeed how stupid “investors” are – all the time, never learn from history. Shows how to steal USD 60 billion and not go to prison, a lot smarter than Bernard Madoff. It is worth reading Amy Castor investigation and timeline.
What sixty years plus experiences in the financial markets have taught me, reality ultimate comes to everyone. Some have to face the music, with losses, bankruptcies and personal misery and suffering, blaming everyone else. I am still totally convinced this is the greatest Ponzi scheme in history!!!
In the latest update, the crypto market is being constantly manipulated, providing great trading opportunities, however since I wrote above and to now 26 July, more than three months ago, nearly all prices have been crashing.
Today, the FT had an interview with the head of Man Group, Luke Ellis, who said: “If you look at cryptocurrencies as a whole, it is a pure trading instrument. There is no inherent worth in it whatsoever. It is a tulip bulb,” Ellis said, referring to the flower that became the focus of a 17th-century Dutch financial mania. London-based Man Group, which manages $127bn for clients, is known for using quantitative models that seek to profit from pricing anomalies and trends in the markets. Much of the market action, in crypto trading, involves participants who doubt their ultimate utility.
“Crypto is essentially an economic cult that taps into very base human instincts of fear, greed and tribalism, combined with economic illiteracy as a means to recruit greater fools to pile money into what looks like a weird, novel digital variant of a pyramid scheme,” argues Stephen Diehl, a crypto-sceptic software engineer. “Although, it’s all very strange because it’s truly difficult to see where the self-aware scams, true believers and performance art begin and end. Crypto is a bizarre synthesis of all three.”
Given the global financial system’s growing exposure to digital currencies, the culture around crypto, how much or little it changes, could have major consequences for retail investors, central banks and the environment. Crypto’s most ardent proponents predict it will eradicate inequality, wipe out corruption and create untold wealth. Most cults make similarly expansive promises. And as the gulf between promise and reality grows, things get dark.
Be realistic, what will happen to crypto” currencies” when either limited or total war breaks out when paper/fiat money can’t even be used. Only gold and other real valuables can buy something. With no internet connection, even no electricity, where is your electronic wallet? In any conflict, to knock out communication is the first objective, therefore, in any conflict around the world, the internet is the first to go down. Take a hard look at the reality.
Just forget all this, do not, compare bitcoin to gold or any real asset; bitcoin is only an insane illusion of speculators hope, fuelled by the many who purchased this dream at 10 cents, not $69,000. With all these “few” people’s billions, they can suck in all the fools, they can daily manipulate the markets and operate their own “exchanges” for their total benefit, allowing all the fools out there to make stops and sell orders, always taken out, both on the long and short side of the market, making more money for these people. To me, the whole thing is not only the wild west but total criminality and daylight robbery. As of writing near 10,000 cryptos!!!
Most recently, SEC chair Gary Gensler described cryptocurrencies as “wild west” and added that they were “full of fraud, fraud and abuse.”
An interesting article!!!
Beware of Scams!!!
Decentralized finance is the biggest scam in the cryptocurrency universe | by Max Mittelstaedt I Bitcoin for Governments | Medium
Decentralized finance is the biggest scam in the cryptocurrency universe, it is NOT decentralized, all the hype have just been created to make the founders billions, for little “work”.
Decentralized Finance is a lie. 99% of the Altcoins are unfortunately centralized scams.
Defi does not have a secure foundation. Defi projects belong to a company with a CEO, an address and a legal department. Most coins had an ICO (An initial coin offering (ICO) is a type of funding using cryptocurrencies.) where the money was distributed to the founders and foundation.
The search is on for $50m in lost cryptocurrency after two Australian exchanges collapse
The implosion of online trading hubs highlights pitfalls of what one legal expert describes as ‘tulipmania’ investments
An interesting article by Concoda: We’re About to Witness the Great Cryptocurrency Reset, The crypto movement is destroying itself
“This and other supremacy wars only increase the crypto elite’s ever-increasing power. Just as we’re components in Wall Street’s machine, we’re plebs in the crypto elite’s rising order. It’s our anger and passion that fuel it. They feed us freedom and liberty porn through social channels and the media. They peddle crypto versions of the legacy financial system as rebellious breakthroughs, such as yield-farming, a Ponzi scheme replica of traditional fractional reserve banking, while pocketing the big bucks through fees.
Let’s face it. With the crypto supremacy wars fueling more division and inequality, the Bitcoin elite wreaking havoc on a global scale, and the community abandoning Nakamoto’s sound money vision to participate in Ponzi schemes, it’s sad but true: the crypto movement is slowly destroying itself.”
US-China doomsday threat ramped up by hi-tech advances, says Kissinger