Dico Lucidas - Taceo Nubilas
Wisdom is the sunlight of the soul
There is only one way to avoid criticism: do nothing, say nothing, and be nothing
I intended to make a Blog, partly because I wanted to communicate with my large and extended family, in a way that all members could see it. Partly, because I wanted to tell my life story before my family read someone else stories about me. Because I have never spoken, others have seized control of my story. Now I will attempt to tell my story, in a way that futures members of my family will have something to read about me, my words, my truth and not all the lies and fiction.
“But how could you live and have no story to tell?”
― Fyodor Dostoevsky, White Nights
The great writer Amos Oz, in his memoir A Tale of Love and Darkness, writes “my ambition was to be a book. Not a writer. People can be killed like ants, writers are not hard to kill. But not books. However systematically you try to destroy them there is always a chance that a copy will survive.” I believe that in the age of the Internet, something will remain in someone’s mind and the seed will have been sown and perhaps one day, the truth will emerge from the darkness and soil of lies.
Many writers have long argued that it is senseless to distinguish between fiction and non-fiction; it is all writing. We live faster than ever before with information, facts and content raptures form. Breaks and changes it, there are no borders between fact and fabrication, one flows into the other. Witnesses are never impartial. In telling a story, humans create, they wrestle time like sculpture does marble. They are actors and creators.
I have been saying now for decades, ultimately, we all have to face reality and the music. Someone has to pay from all the printing of money and debts – One day.
This morning I received an email today:
The Chairman of the Fed knows this. The President knows it. So does the Treasury Secretary. In fact, nearly everyone at the top levels of the U.S. Government knows it, too. But they would never say it out loud. Not even to themselves. If they did, the whole house of cards would come tumbling down.
What’s their dirty little secret? The national debt is now too big to be paid off! That’s right, the U.S. A.’s national debt of $28 trillion dollars — $157 trillion if you count the bills we have to pay in the future — is now too big to be repaid by raising taxes or cutting spending.
There’s only one way out of this fiscal crisis, and they’re not going to tell you about it for obvious reason. One has to devalue the US Dollar and reset the world monetary system.
This time it is worse than when I wrote in our market report back in 1976, that the meetings of the IMF were discussing to “built” another penthouse on top of another one on the 50th floor of their skyscraper, no one wanted to speak about the fact that the skyscraper was built in a swamp and slowly sinking. Now we have reached the end of all cycles.
As a technical analyst and market technician, I have close to sixty years followed a foundation incorporated in my birth year, the Foundation for the Study of Cycles was incorporated on January 10, 1941, by Edward R. Dewey after he discovered coincidental cycles in nature and business. I read his compelling paper, The Case for Cycles published in 1967 when Dewey presents years of research that convinced him of natural environmental forces that stimulate and depress mankind in mass. This leads me to go to meetings in London City with like-minded people looking at technical analysis of the prices, being bonds, equities and commodities and the first steps to founding STA (The Society of Technical Analysts).
I made an academic paper, in the late 1960s, on the moon influence on the price of cotton and silver over a period of 170 years, at the time, clearly showing the connection with the monthly cycle of the moon. After all, we have known for years that women menstrual period was governed by the moon cycle. Mental and hormonal states are under the influence of the Moon. Just as the Moon takes about 28 days to circle around to Earth, a woman’s menstrual cycle is approximately 28 days.
My Sixty Years of Experience
Have taught me that nothing lasts forever, changes will always come. I started out in adult life as a “financial advisor” nearly 60 years ago; at the time, I was a very young man taking my knowledge from others and indeed from reading many books. After working several years with investment research, including creating the first offshore investment fund report for institutional investors (a technical and quantitative analysis to mutual funds and investment trusts). In fact, the word “offshore” had been defined by some of my collegues and me, as stated in the New York Times in 1969. In 1969 co-founded the first company in Europe, possibly in the world, for financial and estate planning in London for High-Net-Worth Investors (HNWI), Associated Financial Planning (AFP). Sadly, I lacked the tenacity to stay the course, mostly totally distracted from the basic investment advice I had for years given to others.
When I created Scandinavian Capital Exchange in Scandinavia in 1973, I pioneered alternative investment and investment in commodities, including precious metals. Prior to this, I had been an advocate of including at least 10% of gold into your investment portfolio. Even before President Nixon in August 1971, took gold out of the U.S. monetary system, I had recommended holding gold.
Because of well-known events, I did not even consider continuing to work in finance. Central to the relationship in banking and finance is trust. When such trust has become an issue, it can never be restored. This meant I stayed away from this area of work; nevertheless, I did follow the markets from the sideline.
I happened to be in New York on Monday the 19th of October 1987, the Black Monday; I later witnessed near 35 years of history of financial markets. We will now face monumental changes, not only caused by the world pandemic but more due to the printing press of money and a change of cycles.
We are coming into new major cycles, both for wars, inflation and commodity prices. Energy is the greatest inflation hedge, so oil and gas will move, possibly dramatically. Everyone should have gold, silver and palladium in the portfolio, but also industrial metals like copper and nickel will go up. As to equities, the military industry will benefit from major crises and uncertainties. The massive build-up of debt will ultimately lead to bankruptcies of nations. Anyone invested in bonds will lose their shirt. We all have to pay the price for our leaders’ reckless spending schemes, obscene debts and money printing. Without being dramatic, we will witness the collapse of the societies, currencies and investment markets that have been built on those follies. This will happen very soon!!
more to follow…..
The IPO of Coinbase, to me, indicate the top of this market (April 14, 2021)
Somehow, I do not believe in all these cryptocurrencies now; when Coinbase, the Digital Currency Exchange, is worth more than BP, this is unrealistic, moreover, command a higher value than the major stock exchanges in the world together. This is unrealistic and naïve to think that this bubble will not burst. It is the Emperor without clothes, with more than 7000 cryptocurrencies!! Bitcoin trading north of $63,000!!
It is interesting that Coinbase acts as principals and not as an exchange; they can create their own crypto assets, moreover pass on any bad deals to their customers. They first made a profit last year, how convenient, after nine years of trading.
Anyone out there with any sense?
Coinbase is somewhat different from other well-known cryptocurrency exchanges as they are more of a broker than an exchange. This means that when you buy cryptocurrencies on the platform, you are actually purchasing the coins directly from Coinbase, as opposed to trading them with other users.
In return for this, Coinbase charges you to deposit and withdraw funds, as well as a transaction/trading fee every time you buy or sell coins.
Don’t forget you only have the option of going long at Coinbase. This means that you can’t make a profit if you think the markets will go down.
Every Tom, Dick and Harry can create their cryptocurrency; there are now more than 13.500 cryptocurrencies, as of writing. Most of them have no assets to back their valuation. Worse, no income. They are only making money for their founders and early investors. What realism is there with more than $2 trillion in crypto? All air!!!!!
As FT writes: Sceptics note that cryptocurrencies have yet to achieve widespread adoption in payments and other core areas of the financial system. Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, on Wednesday called cryptocurrencies “vehicles for speculation”, reflecting a view that is still prevalent among policymakers around the world. In 2018, Bank for International Settlements head Agustín Carstens said “cryptocurrencies are, in a nutshell, a bubble, a Ponzi scheme and an environmental disaster”.
Others warn prices are only sustained by speculative buyers.
Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England said last week that investors risked losing all of their money. “They have no intrinsic value. That doesn’t mean to say people don’t put a value on them, because they can have extrinsic value. But they have no intrinsic value,” he said. “I’m going to say this very bluntly again. Buy them only if you’re prepared to lose all your money.”
What will happen if there are future crypto wars? Cyberattack on electricity network? Knocking out all the exchanges? Or that one country like the USA forbid cryptocurrencies? Turkey has just ban digital money payment for goods and services, who is next? China does not allow the citizen to own or trade in cryptocurrencies. What will happen when the government request all banks to reject crypto and inform on owners with crypto accounts to the Revenue? Nearly all the exchanges, act as principals, charging interest on the huge leverage trading; they can monitor all the trading and force price moves, creating more fees and profits – what kind of exchange is that?
I was the co-founder in the late 1960s and early 1970s of a group of Technical Analysts in London, holding regular meetings. Later we incorporated in the late 1980s and became the Society of Technical Analysts (STA), today a highly respected professional association, and leading member of the international Market Technician Association.
I should have predicted all this speculation coming. Moreover, looking at the charts of bitcoin, it appears one of the easiest things to trade and make money in during the last ten years, with regular and very identifiable cycles. 320, 80 and 20 days. I have for years just walked away from something which is so obvious, – I have been blind. For me it is not an issue if all these now 12.000 plus cryptocurrencies is a total fraud, we now have values of more than 2.5 trillion dollars, and despite most of this is just “air” with NOTHING behind., one could have had a fantastic ride both on the up and downside.
Bitcoin lies in the same economic category as financial games like poker, roulette, and the lottery. These are all zero-sum games. The property binding all zero-sum games together is that the amount of resources contributed to the pot is precisely equal to the amount that is paid out. Because nothing additional is created in a zero-sum game, for every player who wins something from the pot, there must be a loser.
Compare this to win-win financial opportunities in financial ssets like stocks or bonds. In the case of a stock, each shareholder’s contribution is used to support the underlying firm’s deployment of capital. This cocktail of machinery, labour, and intellectual property are combined to create products, the sale of which generates a return. Put differently, as long as the firm’s managers deploy the money in the pot wisely; the firm can throw off more cash to shareholders than the sum originally put into the pot.
PS! I have to declare that my opinion might be tainted by the fact that I back in 2011, agreed to receive 280 Bitcoins, as a refund for some software I had purchased with a credit card. The bitcoin was valued at 9-10 cents, it was only reluctantly I agreed, but the developer told me that they had to pay credit card fees and I on my end and it would be better to get bitcoin. I received an electronic wallet for the first time. I did notice during 2012, the value of the bitcoin going up, but I did not have the possibility to engage myself in the trading, as I found the whole concept conspicuous, obviously not knowing much about the whole concept. Nevertheless, I place my wallet in a TrueCrypt encryption, which even later complicated everything more. In 2017 I tried to get into these hard drives which unfortunately had been damaged in the storage by water; however, I failed, with the computer, I believe, having the wallet with the bitcoins. So until now, I have lost 280 bitcoins, having them virtually in my hand in 2011 – at that time with some reluctance.
A good read: The Tether Ponzi Scheme – Single Lunch, reflection what it is all about and indeed how stupid “investors” are – all the time, never learn from history. Shows how to steal USD 60 billion and not go to prison, a lot smarter than Bernard Madoff. It is worth reading Amy Castor investigation and timeline.
What sixty years plus experiences in the financial markets have taught me, reality ultimate comes to everyone. Some have to face the music, with losses, bankruptcies and personal misery and suffering, blaming everyone else. I am still totally convinced this is the greatest Ponzi scheme in history!!!
In the latest update, the crypto market is being constantly manipulated, providing great trading opportunities, however since I wrote above and to now 26 July, more than four months ago, nearly all prices have been crashing.
Today, the FT had an interview with the head of Man Group, Luke Ellis, who said: “If you look at cryptocurrencies as a whole, it is a pure trading instrument. There is no inherent worth in it whatsoever. It is a tulip bulb,” Ellis said, referring to the flower that became the focus of a 17th-century Dutch financial mania. London-based Man Group, which manages $127bn for clients, is known for using quantitative models that seek to profit from pricing anomalies and trends in the markets. Much of the market action, in crypto trading, involves participants who doubt their ultimate utility.
“Crypto is essentially an economic cult that taps into very base human instincts of fear, greed and tribalism, combined with economic illiteracy as a means to recruit greater fools to pile money into what looks like a weird, novel digital variant of a pyramid scheme,” argues Stephen Diehl, a crypto-sceptic software engineer. “Although, it’s all very strange because it’s truly difficult to see where the self-aware scams, true believers and performance art begin and end. Crypto is a bizarre synthesis of all three.”
Given the global financial system’s growing exposure to digital currencies, the culture around crypto, how much or little it changes, could have major consequences for retail investors, central banks and the environment. Crypto’s most ardent proponents predict it will eradicate inequality, wipe out corruption and create untold wealth. Most cults make similarly expansive promises. And as the gulf between promise and reality grows, things get dark.
Be realistic, what will happen to crypto” currencies” when either limited or total war breaks out when paper/fiat money can’t even be used. Only gold and other real valuables can buy something. With no internet connection, even no electricity, where is your electronic wallet? In any conflict, to knock out communication is the first objective, therefore, in any conflict around the world, the internet is the first to go down. Take a hard look at the reality.
Just forget all this, do not, compare bitcoin to gold or any real asset; bitcoin is only an insane illusion of speculators hope, fuelled by the many who purchased this dream at 10 cents, not $69,000. With all these “few” people’s billions, they can suck in all the fools, they can daily manipulate the markets and operate their own “exchanges” for their total benefit, allowing all the fools out there to make stops and sell orders, always taken out, both on the long and short side of the market, making more money for these people. To me, the whole thing is not only the wild west but total criminality and daylight robbery. As of writing near 10,000 cryptos!!!
Most recently, SEC chair Gary Gensler described cryptocurrencies as “wild west” and added that they were “full of fraud, fraud and abuse.”
Although, I have only been an observer, I predicted the collapse of the crypto “currencies, more than 14 months ago. Anyone reading this page last April (2021) could see I predicted that this completely mad hysteria of Bitcoin and crypto with DeFi, was just in reality a one BIG PONZI – a fraud. Sadly, few will be prosecuted and even go to jail.
Never, in my right mind, would I have believed that it was possible to deceive and defraud the world with such a great Ponzi scheme.
It reminds me, what I told the First Institutional Investors Conference in 1969 (at the Savoy Hotel in London), that the world wants to be deceived and indeed referred to another Dane, Hans Christian Andersen, fairy-tale story about an emperor without clothes as two tailors took advantage of people’s stupidity.
I never believed these crypto, latest count more than 22,000 “token”, was a currency, just ridiculous. They represented to me a simple greed and fraud, in its simplicity. Yes, there was many very smart people out there involved and some took away huge fortune.
Nevertheless, it is all the hike and disinformation, it was the emperor without clothes and the early “investors” according to research only 64 people, in Bitcoin, have been able to orchestra the whole concert, moving the market as they liked and to get all the “stupid” people in buying their story.
When every Tom Dick and Henry can “create” a coin, and simply steal money from the public, something ultimately must happen, and we see reality coming to all market including the stock market and bonds. Cash and real value will be KING, I do not see the bottom yet and the real CRASH!! Just wait when the world must account for debt!
“The tide has gone out in crypto, and we’re seeing that many of these businesses and platforms rested on shaky and unsustainable foundations,” said Lee Reiners, a former Federal Reserve official who teaches at Duke University Law School. “The music has stopped.”
If you believe, as I do, that crypto is to a large extent a Ponzi scheme, this may just happen to be the moment when the scheme has run out of new suckers.
But there’s also a more fundamental issue: People who touted cryptocurrencies as a hedge against fiat-currency inflation — sort of a digital equivalent of gold — fundamentally misunderstood how fiat currency systems work, and also, for what it’s worth, misunderstand what has historically driven the price of gold. It was, in fact, predictable that an upsurge in inflation would drive the price of Bitcoin down — although maybe not that it would produce such an epic crash.
The implosion of online trading hubs highlights pitfalls of what one legal expert describes as ‘tulipmania’ investments
An interesting article by Concoda: We’re About to Witness the Great Cryptocurrency Reset, The crypto movement is destroying itself
“This and other supremacy wars only increase the crypto elite’s ever-increasing power. Just as we’re components in Wall Street’s machine, we’re plebs in the crypto elite’s rising order. It’s our anger and passion that fuel it. They feed us freedom and liberty porn through social channels and the media. They peddle crypto versions of the legacy financial system as rebellious breakthroughs, such as yield-farming, a Ponzi scheme replica of traditional fractional reserve banking, while pocketing the big bucks through fees.
Let’s face it. With the crypto supremacy wars fueling more division and inequality, the Bitcoin elite wreaking havoc on a global scale, and the community abandoning Nakamoto’s sound money vision to participate in Ponzi schemes, it’s sad but true: the crypto movement is slowly destroying itself.
Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger called bitcoin “disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization.”
“I don’t welcome a currency that’s so useful to kidnappers and extortionists and so forth, nor do I like just shuffling out of your extra billions of billions of dollars to somebody who just invented a new financial product out of thin air,” he said. The 97-year-old Munger has long criticized bitcoin for its extreme volatility and lack of regulation. I somewhat agree with him, however, blockchain is here to stay and a DeFi revolution will happen.
Looking at Bitcoin here in early 2022, it looks to me that we will have a so-called head and shoulder formation bring Bitcoin back under US Dollar 10,000 with Etherium most likely far under 1,000. Something will cause all this – the reality of market and value.
I believe we are going see the 1970s all over again, I strongly believe that we will see gold and silver prices will go dramatically higher. Just think for a moment, the US has 100 trillion of unfunded liabilities. They must devalue the US Dollar somehow.
Lastest as to Crypto
Given this reality, the bluntness of a recent speech on crypto regulation by Lael Brainard, the Fed vice chair, is almost shocking.
True, Brainard didn’t go as far as Jim Chanos, the famous short-seller, who called crypto a “predatory junkyard.” But she came close. The very first heading in her remarks was, “Distinguishing Responsible Innovation From Regulatory Evasion,” and she strongly suggested that much of the crypto universe is driven by the latter. Traditional banking is regulated for a reason; crypto, in bypassing these regulations, she said, has created an environment subject to bank runs, not to mention “theft, hacks and ransom attacks” — plus “money laundering and financing of terrorism.
I argue that crypto assets’ price is based largely on there being an even greater fool who believes the hype.
Bitcoin on ‘road to irrelevance’, say ECB officials
Akila Quinio in London – 30th November 2022
European Central Bank officials have called bitcoin unsuitable as a payment method and an investment vehicle, in an unusually forceful rejection of the cryptocurrency. The recent stabilisation of bitcoin’s value around $20,000 — down from its 2021 peak of about $69,000 — was an “artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance”, wrote Ulrich Bindseil and Jürgen Schaaf in a blog post on Wednesday, rejecting claims that the digital currency would rebound.
The two central bankers argued that bitcoin was “questionable” as a means of payment due to its “conceptual design and technological shortcomings” that rendered its transactions “cumbersome, slow and expensive”. They urged regulators not to give cryptocurrency legitimacy in the name of innovation.
“Bitcoin has never been used to any significant extent for legal real-world transactions,” they wrote. Bindseil and Schaaf also said the cryptocurrency was “not suitable as an investment” and that its market valuation was “based purely on speculation”.
“It does not generate cash flow (like real estate) or dividends (like equities), cannot be used productively (like commodities) or provide social benefits (like gold),” they wrote.
The blog post also hit out at regulators, saying current frameworks were shaped by misconceptions including the belief that innovation should be fostered at all costs.
“Since bitcoin appears to be neither suitable as a payment system nor as a form of investment, it should be treated as neither in regulatory terms and thus should not be legitimised,” they said.
The comments come after the UK’s City minister Andrew Griffith on Tuesday reiterated the government’s ambitions to become a global crypto hub and “allow more risk”, backing a proposed stablecoins regulation, a Royal Mint non-fungible token and other measures.
US-China doomsday threat ramped up by hi-tech advances, says Kissinger